The last couple of weeks have seen intense speculation that the self-styled Union of Myanmar (known as Burma in the West) is seeking nuclear weapons. The affair started with an article in the Sydney Morning Herald based on interviews with two Burmese defectors: Moe Jo and Tin Min. The former claimed that he had been trained to be part of a thousand man strong "nuclear battalion". He also claimed that Myanmar had provided yellowcake to North Korea and Iran. The defector continued to claim that the country was planning a plutonium reprocessing facility, and that the Russian Federation were assisting them with expertise. The other defector had worked as an accountant, and claimed to have had access to documentation on various tunnel projects implemented by North Korea and Russia. This information was sketchy at best, and must be read with scepticism.
However, a number of private researchers nevertheless started to survey Myanmar for possible locations confirming the defectors stories. Initial efforts focussed on a region about 50 kilometres west of Mandalay, near a city called Pyin Oo Lwin, the former summer capital of British Burma. This region of the country is known for being important to Burma's national economy. First, it is the centre for Burma's silkworm rearing industry, it also has a research centre for indigenous medical plants, and it has a pharmaceutical production plant. In addition, various tourist websites explain that the area is frequently visited by trekkers, indicating that it's not closed off for international tourists. The region is served by the Aniskan Airfield (21°57'28"N 96°24'18"E) which is located just off the Mandalay to Lashio highway.
In particular, analysts looked at a big building about 15 kilometres from the city (at 22° 3'4.82"N96°37'46.21"E). The building is about 80 times 80 meters and is resting on a 121 by 114 meter fundament. Based on an analysis of the shadows, it appears to be about 10 meters high.A team of VERTIC volunteers started an analysis of available Landsat-7 imagery, and paid particular attention to the thermal band. Based on that analysis, we could conclude that construction had started at some time in early 2004, and that the building had been completed sometime in 2009. The thermal analysis indicated that the building was warmer than the surrounding background, which was attributed to heat being reflected off the roof, rather than activities inside the building. The vegetation in the area west of the facility also gives off some thermal radiation. The VERTIC team did not calculate the heat emissions in centigrade, although that is possible to do with Landsat-7 imagery. A colour comparison indicated that the building was not radiating significant amounts of heat, as it would if any major industrial process was on going under its roof.
In part based on this information, Jeffrey Lewis and others requested new imagery from GeoEye. One image, captured at 13 April 2004 reveals the absence of any basement level. It also showed that the access road, at that time, had not been paved. A multitude of tracks radiating out from the facility shows a significant level of human activity. It is not possible, however, to draw any conclusion from the imagery on the building's planned function. Another high resolution image, acquired on 21 February 2009, shows the building in its finished state. It seems to rest on an asphalt-concrete foundation, and there is no evidence of further excavation on the site. Construction is finished, as evidenced by the emergence of vegetation, and the disappearance of some of the dirt roads associated with the early construction period.
Some observers have commented that there is an absence of many external features indicative of a reactor. Here, many have observed the absence of a convenient nearby source of water. However, cooling could be brought to the facility through pipes from the nearby river, and then being stored in local pools. This is common practice in some parts of the world. The VERTIC team therefore paid some attention to a group of newly erected buildings by the water at the shortest distance from the river. This group is of buildings is located at 22° 4'38.57"N96°34'22.83"E. We're still assessing this imagery.
However, we learned from two sources, independent from each other, that the box-like building has been under scrutiny by the IAEA's Department of Safeguards for quite some time, and that the department is nearly certain that the building does not serve any nuclear programme. An official, associated with a Western intelligence agency, later told us that, "we've been looking at that site for years, since construction started. You cannot hide a reactor in a low building without a basement level". A relatively recent visit to the facility has reportedly confirmed with '99 per cent confidence' that it is a machine shop, and that it's not impossible that the shop is using machinery imported from the DPRK trading company Namchongang. Its relatively large size, low height, and absence of basement levels is consistent with this information.
On 10 August 2009, Mark Hibbs reported in Nuclear Fuel that nuclear activities in Myanmar are low, but slowly increasing. The country has requested a number of technical cooperation projects with the IAEA, and is presently implementing projects worth about $5.2m. But all activities are conducted in the Ministry of Science & Technology and are conceptual in nature. This is consistent with the low nuclear knowledge base of the country. As reported by Hibbs, the 'typical profile' of a Myanmar nuke worker 'is young, inexperienced, scientists and technicians in their early to mid-twenties'. The IAEA's Department of Safeguards have picked up virtually no scientific papers published by Myanmar academics of interest to the department. While this is consistent with some nuclear weapons efforts, where the most promising minds of the country are isolated and prohibited from publishing, it is also consistent with a country with a very small scientific base.
Finally, Hibbs reports that there are severe educational infrastructure deficiencies in the country. He quotes an official familiar with the IAEA Department of Safeguards open-source investigation efforts saying that a clandestine nuclear effort, 'have to be a totally black program within everything imported. In Burma there is no national R&D center for them to hide behind. It is unthinkable that they could mount a [clandestine] nuclear program on the basis of what we already know is there'.
While Burma has approached Russia for the purchase of a research reactor, a senior official at Atomstroyexport has confirmed that there is no construction in Myanmar of any reactor with Russian assistance.
We hope to conclude our investigations and to publish a VERTIC brief on this matter by the end of the month.
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